Redstate

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2...

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Notice to All - I am an independent who has voted for Senator Bayh (Democrat) and Senator Lugar (Republican) along with over 60% of my state. You may take what I say with a grain of salt at your own party'

a definite "slobbering" adulation going on for all things D at this juncture...what with the media wing of the Democrat party "lavishing" praise at every turn....I will pend on polls until after the Republican convention....nothing more Patriotic than a Republican convention...gets those clinging to their guns and religion fired up!

Freedom of Religion not Freedom from Religion

McCain really knows how to motivate Republicans doesn't he... I am sure his speech will be all about how evil Democrats are

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Notice to All - I am an independent who has voted for Senator Bayh (Democrat) and Senator Lugar (Republican) along with over 60% of my state. You may take what I say with a grain of salt at your own party'

Aside from hope & change, Obama's stump speeches attack Republicans as evil, along with various American traditions and institutions: private enterprise, boy scouts, wal-mart, etc

Both sides do it. It's not like Obama/Clinton are offering anything different than the same liberal policies, and the same stump speeches, too.

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

If you haven't noticed Democrats are pretty damn motivated right now, especially the Obama folks. Republicans on the other hand really aren't. If Obama and McCain run the exact same campaign then Obama will win because his side is much more motivated and Republicans right now seem to all carry the plague.

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Notice to All - I am an independent who has voted for Senator Bayh (Democrat) and Senator Lugar (Republican) along with over 60% of my state. You may take what I say with a grain of salt at your own party'

two candidates Obama and McCain? their strengths and weaknesses?

Freedom of Religion not Freedom from Religion

McCain's biggest strengths:

1) "Independent Republican" - This is a great strength especially this year for him. He has built up a lot of good rep over the past few years.
2) Military Experience - People will trust him in military matters over Obama, perhaps not including Iraq.
3) Swing State Republican - Great that Republicans don't have to worry about AZ in the fall. Can also help for the region because CO, NM, and NV are in play and that is his stomping ground.

McCain's biggest weaknesses

1) "Independent Republican" - Funny how I put this here eh. McCain is going to be trending a fine line in this election. He is going to need to inspire the Republican base, but at the same time appeal to independents (his biggest asset). He has gotten a lot of good press over the past 8 years so when the negative ads starts coming it will be interesting to see where independents go.
2) Age/Speaking Ability - I am putting this here. Being the President is one of the most stressful jobs and people are concerned about whether or not you can handle it. Next everytime I listen to McCain speak in a townhall format I feel like he is lecturing children vs Obama that a big problem.
3) Bush - Notice to all PEOPLE DONT LIKE BUSH. The last thing people want to hear for the next 4 years is a sermon and divisive speak. If Obama paints McCain as Bush Jr he in a huge amount of trouble.

Obama's biggest strengths

1) Speaking ability - Many of you may laugh when you listen to him talk but he is a great speaker. Because of it he can get himself out of a lot of trouble in the future.
2) Money/Loyality - Notice to all Republicans will be outspent. Not just from Obama's money but from 527s and PACS. His following is also impressive. He has a legion of followers willing to not only donate but to volunteer.
3) Lack of Experience - Yes I am putting this here and because for the next few months you won't be able to hear on TV "Obama raised taxes 10000 times". He doesn't have a record to attack.
4) Domestic Issues - When it comes to domestic issues Democrats win on Health Care, Economy, and Education. If this is about those Republicans in trouble.

Obama's biggest weaknesses

1) Surprises - The Wright situation was just one potential situation and lucky for Obama it came early. Since Obama is new what else will happen?
2) "Independent Democrat" - Just like McCain Obama has convinced many people that he is different. Well if that can be chipped away it will hurt big time. I saw a NC poll showing him tied with McCain, but at the same time he tied in MI. People are unsure what to think about him which can hurt if McCain defines him.
3) "Unknown Effect of Primary" - A big weakness is how much did the party hurt or help him. When you starting a campaign and their are all these unknowns it is bad.
4) Lack of Experience - Here I am going again with the both strength and weakness bit. When it comes to military affairs people, at least say, they want someone with experience.

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Notice to All - I am an independent who has voted for Senator Bayh (Democrat) and Senator Lugar (Republican) along with over 60% of my state. You may take what I say with a grain of salt at your own party'

"People" may consist of 70-80% of the population but that 20-30% that still "approves" of Bush's job are probably the base. It'll be interesting to see how McCain may distance himself from Bush. He has to be careful not to just outright insult the last administration (like he has before imo). For people like myself who appreciate to no end how Bush stuck to his principles on the WOT, insulting him there and then telling me I should vote for McCain is not unlike insulting my dad (or mom if that makes you more emotional) and telling me I should still vote against Obama.

"Hey, I call 'em like I see 'em. I'm a whale biologist."

Freedom of Religion not Freedom from Religion

speakers will do theirs....I mean isn't that how we got Obama-lite this go round?

Freedom of Religion not Freedom from Religion

...until you got to the "Democrats" part.

Usually the top of the ticket has coattails for Congressional candidates to get behind... McCain's, sadly, are radioactive. He very likely could win the White House and be staring down a 250-seat Democratic House caucus and a 60-member Democrat Senate caucus.

His image is good, but it's impossible to run behind.

"No matter how much lipstick you put on the taxation pig, it's still a pig... and it's currently snout-down in your wallet." - Michael Fisk

Certainly, the media "slobbering" is part of this. Also, in NC, Hagan probably benefits from the fact that she just won a contested primary, while Dole has not really campaigned yet. If Dole has high approval ratings like this closer to the election, and she runs a decent campaign, then she should be fine. The TX poll, however, strikes me as a big danger sign, mostly because Cornyn has never had huge positive approval ratings in TX (unlike Dole in NC).

I'd think Dole would be more vulnerable. Correct me if I'm wrong, but she's never really been that popular that I can remember and her numbers, while ahead of the Democratic opponent, have been quite low for a long time.

Republicans use on EVERYONE. If McCain runs his stratagy on that he is going to lose and lose badly. If it is Bush Jr vs Well spoken Kerry Jr then Republicans will lose.

Also Presidental vs Senate Campaigns are 2 different things. I keep hearing about how people use Pelosi and such in their ads guess what 90% of the people don't care. Heck I bet you 50% of the electorate doesn't even know who she is. Republicans in each state are going to have to do something to prove to their people they deserve another term and right now unless something happens I think it will be a bad year for a lot of elected officials.

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Notice to All - I am an independent who has voted for Senator Bayh (Democrat) and Senator Lugar (Republican) along with over 60% of my state. You may take what I say with a grain of salt at your own party'

with regards to the President but he is not Bush Jr....he is President Bush...a little respect for the man who has kept us safe on American soil for the last 7 years...he has earned it and he deserves it....if you cannot say anything nice about him don't say anything at all.

Freedom of Religion not Freedom from Religion

Bush Jr = McCain
Kerry Jr = Obama

Talking about defining a person in a campaign.

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Notice to All - I am an independent who has voted for Senator Bayh (Democrat) and Senator Lugar (Republican) along with over 60% of my state. You may take what I say with a grain of salt at your own party'

you could no more paint Senator McCain as President Bush...and in regards to Kerry...yeah the American people did not love that elite piece of crap and they are not going to like Obama in a townhall setting...you see Obama is only good when he is reading his speech, he sucks when he has to think on his feet...his weaknesses will be glaring...and even though his campaign manager said he would do townhalls I will believe it when I see it...none the less please don't call President Bush..Bush jr....it is very disrpectful and no matter whether you think people like him or not the base of the party loves him....and it will be the base that puts Senator McCain over the top....he can distance himself without being disrepectful.

Freedom of Religion not Freedom from Religion

Step back for 1 second. I am not talking about my opinions I am talking about the role of defining individuals in a political campaign. See the goal of McCain will be to define Obama in the way he wants people to see him and vise versa. I hope you have friends that are Democrats and you actually talk to them and discuss politics because if you do that is most likely how they describing John McCain as a clone of the president.

Next I think you sadly mistaken if this election is going to be about the base putting someone over the top especially if you a Republican. You might not of been noticing what this topic was originally about but the Republican base has been destroyed these past 4 years. In 2006 I was here talking about how people are upset with Republicans, but there were a bunch of people would not see past their enclosed world of politics. Obama is different from Kerry. I likened Kerry talking to Mr. Ed (you know the Horse of course of course).

McCain will have to distance himself from the President without being disrespectful that is for sure, but if he doesn't appear like he has different policies and different views then he will lose period.

My posts generally are about public perception and what people must do to overcome them. You may love the President, but if Republicans want to win in 2008 they have to realize most people hate the way he has run this country.

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Notice to All - I am an independent who has voted for Senator Bayh (Democrat) and Senator Lugar (Republican) along with over 60% of my state. You may take what I say with a grain of salt at your own party'

nt

B) I didn't say there was a better alternative.

Two different elections; two different sets of candidates; each judged separately on their relative merits. Party affiliation was secondary at best. That's my interpretation.

And Rightly So!

McCain lacks three critical things: money, enthusiasm, and volunteers. He will need at least some of those things to win a presidential election.

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

Republicans generally turnout in big numbers for general elections, especially presidential elections. While the conservative base of the GOP may not be in love with McCain, I they'll be driven to the polls in large part to vote against Obama. I predict that Obama will be toxic to anyone who is center-right in their thinking by November. The GOP will define him as such.

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

Freedom of Religion not Freedom from Religion

Let preface this with a big fat ominous IF. If this year is a landslide, I think it will be b/c D turnout is higher than "normal" and R turnout is normal.

What is normal though? In 2004, we saw massive increase on both sides, but the R increase was more (IIRC, 17% for Rs, 14% for Ds over 2000). If 2000 was normal and Rs turnout normal while Ds turnout like it's 2004, that's a 1996-like win for Obama with 300+ EVs.

If Ds can improve on 2004 by another 10-15% and Rs repeat 2004, again it's like 1996.

If Ds can improve by 10-15% and Rs turnout like its 2000, then we're talking Goldwater-like numbers.

I think the most likely of those situations is Rs turning out like 2004 but Ds getting an additional 10% (6 million) voters. That takes a 3 million vote R victory and makes it a 3 million vote D victory. This is obviously worsened if there are major defections/sitouts.

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How many new Democrats were registered in years past?

Rock the vote anyone?

Is it true that a higher percentage of Democrat votes come from registered Ds? i.e. more "Democrats" are actually registered as such (as a percentage) than are "Republicans" that are registered as such. Most Republican voters I know are not registered Republicans. They don't take the time.

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

Yes because most registration drives are aimed at younger voters and minorities today and Republicans really have no more voters to gain lately

...all these voters every single election. The "youth and minority vote" was supposed to carry many Democrats to victory, but didn't. These voter drives have been going on for years. If what you insinuate is true, then the GOP would have no voters left.

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

I remember hearing the same thing about Santorum for a whole year of polls showing him down 10. And it was true too. He had come from behind in 1994 and 2000. But this time he lost by 19.

Just saying that a bad poll is a bad poll. Rs shouldn't rationalize it. If no one else shows it close, then it's not. But this should put it on the watch list.

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It's entirely different. He was in a blue state, one, and two, he didn't come from behind in 2000, he was polling ahead and he stayed ahead.

And if you thought he was going to pull it out in 2006 you were nuts. The only question in my mind was he going to lose by 10pts or 30pts? He split the difference with a nice 20.

We are going to take a beating in Senate races this year, but Dole or Cornyn are not going to lose. It's not even going to be particularly close. I'm guessing at least 8pts for each.

"I will look for people in the cast of John Roberts, Samuel Alito, and my friend the late William Rehnquist – jurists of the highest caliber who know their own minds, and know the law, and know the difference." - John McCain

I agree it will have an impact. Of course it will be mainly in the South and some in the Northeast where blacks are concentrated. Presidential, this may affect PA, OH, MI and perhaps VA. Senatorial, most close races are not in states with many blacks (OR, MN, ME, NH, CO, NM). But NC and LA are exceptions, and the two MS races could be as well.

On the other hand, Obama has negative coattails in KY and WV where there are Senate races.

In REP races, it won't have much impact because the Voting Rights Act requires putting most blacks in hopelessly Democrat districts.
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This is a number I've been curious about for a while but not been able to find. Does anyone know what black turnout is like compared to white? I seem to recall hearing that it's something like 25 or 30% lower, but I've not been able to verify that anywhere. If that is the case, then the upside for Obama (that would be the downside for us) is huge. Scary huge. Can't find the data though.

-exits

polls looked bad and Rs showed up... and Rs lost.

In 2004, the polls got almost everything right including the fact that the Presidential race was too close to call. They nailed the Senate races.

In 2006, the polls got almost everything right despite the slew of over-optimistic hopeful posts and analysis.

Rs can lose. They can lose in NC and TX. And if they were going to lose, this would be the year.

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Obama has no chance of carrying Texas or NC. They simply are not going to be able to convince enough people to split tickets with second-tier opponents.

"I will look for people in the cast of John Roberts, Samuel Alito, and my friend the late William Rehnquist – jurists of the highest caliber who know their own minds, and know the law, and know the difference." - John McCain

I know exactly what the GOP's message is: lower taxes, smaller government, free-market health care, winning in Iraq, and conservative judges.

I also know exactly what the Democrats "message" is: higher taxes, bigger government, left-wing judges, pulling out of Iraq, socialized medicine.

What is so hard to figure out? I hear McCain and various Republicans communicating this everyday. Please elaborate.

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

St Louis,

I am diehard Republican but Republicans message today is identified in these terms: Iraq, tax cuts, Oil men, and big business. Its wrong but its what media has been able to perceive to people.

The Dems are about change while Republicans have same message as they did in 1980. Its great to keep same values and priorities but Republicans need to have a new Message to SELL it.

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

Well, I know Democrats are for Universal Socialist Health Care Plans and Republicans are against it. Then what is Republican plan for health care? Your Message can't just be against something you need to be for something.

I am not "FOR" McCain.

I am, however, very much against Barack Obama and everything that his Socialist Democrat Party stands for.

That will get me and my friends to the polls.

...per the Washington Times. It will include short-term plans for 2008, as well as long-term plans for future elections.

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

One can only hope.

I've no doubt that this secret plan will sweep Republicans back to power in all three branches with a convincing mandate.

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

And you can't think of a reason to vote for your party?

Have you stopped to think of a fillibuster proof senate and President Obama? Sheesh! They are socialists at least and Marxists most likely.

... govt spending/deficit to the economy's woes to counter Dem govt spending message. That's #1. Another positive message is to focus on health savings accounts in response to govt run healthcare. That's #2.

On the negative/attack side, focus on Obama's social extremes. That shouldn't be hard, there's plenty of material. I wonder what McCain will actually do though.

...to drive down GOP turnout.

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

Adam wants to help people get a handle on this situation. These two polls show that the bottom is in fact falling out. Now if people don't want to believe that, they can continue contributing to campaigns like Jim Gilmore's so that we lose far more seats than we have to. Right now our message is that the Democrats will be bad and Obama's not ready to be CoC. If that's all we got, we're going to lose everything - badly. The people who are pretending that things really aren't that bad and that somehow the Republican base will magically turn out and that independents couldn't possibly vote for someone as far left as Obama are doing far more harm than those accurately assessing the situation and attempting to get the best possible outcome out of this election, as bad as the best case scenario may be. In 1992, a lot of Republicans, including the President himself, simply didn't believe that people would actually vote for a guy like Bill Clinton. Independents will vote for Obama and Democrats. Attempting to tie every Democrat to Nancy Pelosi is a losing strategy, and it is not enough to say that the other guy will be a disaster. Being right, even when most voters agree with you, is not enough and you, and you and some others on here aren't doing anybody Republican any favors by pretending that that's not true.

www.republicansenate.org

Not to thread jack, but since you mentioned him: do you you really not think that Gilmore has any shot at all?

-exits

The Virginia Senate race features two very well known political figures, both former governors. Warner has held a huge lead from the beginning. Gilmore ran one of the most inept presidential campaigns in recent memory and is not even close to being able to keep the fundraising race close. He has done nothing to close the gap and Warner continues to poll in the 50s while Gilmore struggles to get into the 40s. Jim Gilmore has as much chance of becoming the next Senator from Virginia as John Rocker has of becoming the next Mayor of New York City.

www.republicansenate.org

Maybe. Stranger things have happened, right?

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

As of the end of March, Bob Marshall had less than $20,000 on hand and was over $5000 in debt. You would be extremely hard pressed to find something stranger that has happened.

www.republicansenate.org

"The Republicans have still not done anything since the disaster in 06."

Erick set up a OB(H)AMA(S) facebook page.

-exits

what have the Republicans done? How have they tried to correct their image and craft their message? I get same message now that I did before the 06 elections.

I agree that they've not done much to improve their image. That said, I'm sure I'm not the only person for whom spending is the number one issue and I do think that McCain has more credibility here than anyone else they could have nominated.

-exits

But what should the GOP do? What new message should we put forward? Who should put it forward? Bush can't speak to save his life, and he doesn't seem to care much anyway. I suspect McCain will be the man. So what is his message?

PS: I am not trying to put you on the spot here, dld1717. But if we are serious about the need for a new message, then I think we need to come up with one now.

PS 2: The quickest and most foolproof way to rebrand the GOP is to give the Dems full control over the government. The Dems have shown that they will destroy themselves, given the chance, and this is how the "out party" always comes back. See 1994 (for the GOP) and 1996 (for the Dems). The economy will tank when they raise taxes and spend through the roof. What keeps me from promoting this idea, however, is that while the economy can always be righted, our nation's security would be in danger from Obama - who while well meaning, seems to be a genuinely weak and foolish man.

Dingo,

I wish I knew what it should be LOL

I just know we push the same theme every election: tax cuts, strong military, etc and it sounds same and yet the Dems talk are even talking about universal health care this cycle and its not even a thing that blinks Dems eyes. Just go back to Hillary health care fiasco and now not even 14 years later and its back.

2) didn't work worth a d*** during the Clinton administration. The economy went great guns, deficits turned into surpluses, and there was a huge economic boom. Yes, I think it was a fortunate coincidence of history that the Internet explosion occurred during this time, but I doubt the average voter understands the intricacies of the time. All they remember is Clinton=surpluses and good economy, Bush (GOP) = war and a bad economy (now).

What the GOP needs is one hell of a PR person. Right now I don't see it.

The Democrats are running on a faith-based, non-falsifiable program of the Marxist variety. When their policies produce runaway inflation and business collapse, that will just indicate the need for them to create more government redistributive programs, expropriate more private property, suppress more dissent via more stingent "fairness doctrines" and campaign finance "reform", and centralize more power to themselves.

We see it all around the world; once the Marxists gain power, they don't give it up voluntarily and almost never before they've destroyed democratic institutions and the economic base of the country.

In in the case of the U.S., the Democrats under Obama will further endanger the country from outside forces through its "appease our enemies and punish our friends" policies. Not to mention their protectionist policies that will perpetuate their self-inflicted domestic economic woes.

And Rightly So!

I read the target is a 10 seat loss in the House and a 4 seat loss in the Senate. That or better is what the GOP leadership is hoping for.